Replacement of components of NTEM (the National Trip End Model)

Description

The National Trip End Model is a trip generation model of Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales). The currently published NTEM version 8 results cover the period 2021 to 2061. These forecasts inform most of the Department for Transport’s investment decisions. The NTEM Synthetic Population project aims to replace Scenario Generator and NATCOP (including the licence cohort model) with a Synthetic Population Forecasting Model. We wish to replace the components ‘Scenario Generator’, ‘NATCOP’ and ‘Licence Cohort Model’ with new forecasting software that generates a ‘synthetic population’ that can be published as well as continuing to provide the inputs to the existing CTripEnd modelling software. This contract has been awarded to Ove Arup & Partners Ltd pursuant to a mini-competition held on the CCS Research & Insights dynamic purchasing agreement (RM6126). The contract has a maximum value of £200,000 excluding VAT, and a duration of 2 years, from 29th April 2024 to 24th April 2026.